The dollar flirts with $1,500 and tests a key ceiling for the Government

The official dollar begins a new week just $2 away from $1,500, and in the city, another focus of attention is starting to emerge: the possibility that the demand for coverage will intensify again as the presidential elections of 2027 approach.

The wholesale exchange rate operates this Monday at $1,498.00. The quotation still remains well below the ceiling of the exchange rate band, which at the end of the week was at $1,852.73, so the formal margin for depreciation continues to be wide.

In this context, the retail rate at Banco Nación is at $1,520, while within the financial sector, the CCL operates at $1,583.50, and the MEP at $1,524.30, while the blue dollar rises to $1,530.

However, the focus is no longer solely on the daily behavior of the dollar, but also on the evolution of private demand for foreign currency and how it may behave as the second half of the year progresses and the market begins to incorporate the electoral scenario of 2027 more forcefully.

The demand for dollars remains strong

Since the easing of access to the foreign exchange market in April 2025, individuals have made gross purchases of $41.118 billion. If we also add the transfers of foreign currency without a specific destination made by the non-financial private sector, the accumulated volume exceeds $45.824 billion.

Conversely, gross sales by individuals reached $6.153 billion, so net purchases accumulated nearly $34.965 billion since the market opened.

During the first half of 2026, gross purchases by individuals exceeded $14.700 billion, maintaining a high rate of dollarization even in a context where the exchange rate advanced below inflation.

The latest official data available corresponds to June. That month, around 1.5 million people bought $2.443 billion, while about 715,000 sold $428 million. The net demand was thus $2.015 billion.

Of the total acquired, around $800 million were deposited in local banks, about $500 million increased the position of external assets, and approximately $700 million were linked to consumption and services abroad through cards.

The precedent of 2025 and the focus on 2027

The market still remembers what happened during the lead-up to the legislative elections of 2025. In September of that year, the demand for dollars reached a monthly peak of $5.130 billion, while in October it remained high, around $4.731 billion. After the electoral result, in November it fell sharply to $1.597 billion.

Throughout 2025, the dollarization of portfolios prior to the elections reached the equivalent of around $35.000 billion.

This precedent explains why the city begins to closely monitor the behavior of savers in light of the upcoming electoral year. For the remainder of 2026, some consultancies estimate that individual purchases could remain between $1.500 billion and $2.000 billion monthly.

If this pace is maintained and political expectations begin to gain weight, the market does not rule out that the demand for coverage will accelerate again during 2027.

The market still expects a moderate depreciation

Despite this sustained demand, exchange rate expectations remain contained. According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), the median of projections places the wholesale dollar at $1,512 on average for August and at $1,652 for December.

This latest estimate represents a downward correction from the $1,673 projected in the previous survey. If this trajectory is fulfilled, the dollar would end 2026 with a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, below the previously estimated 15.5% and also well below the expected inflation for the entire year.

In the futures market, projections also do not currently show a scenario of abrupt jumps. Contracts place the wholesale rate around $1,514 by the end of August and $1,627 by December.

At the same time, the Government is working to reach 2027 with greater capacity to absorb potential episodes of volatility. The Central Bank continues to accumulate reserves and so far this year has purchased nearly $14.000 billion, above the originally planned target.

On Friday, the monetary authority added $16 million in the official market, while gross international reserves closed around $49.455 billion, following the impact generated by the payment of $852 million to the International Monetary Fund.

The Executive also has various lines of liquidity and swap agreements within its strategy, intending to expand the available backing against potential episodes of volatility.

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