War Cuts Dubai Airport Traffic by 31%, but Its Global Ambitions Remain Intact

Dubai International Airport lost nearly a third of its traffic during the first half of 2026 due to the war with Iran, but its management insists that the disruption will be temporary and maintains its $35 billion expansion of Al Maktoum.

• The airport handled 31.5 million passengers in the first half, a year-on-year decline of 31.3%.
• Dubai Airports expects to close 2026 with around 70 million passengers, far from its previous target of over 100 million.
• Paul Griffiths claims that operations could return to 100% by the end of the year and that Al Maktoum is still on track for 2032.

Dubai International Airport started 2026 with 8.7 million passengers in January, but a few weeks later faced an unprecedented crisis for its infrastructure. Ballistic missile alerts associated with the war between Iran and other regional actors disrupted aviation across the Gulf and forced the emirate's main international hub to operate under pressure. According to Fortune, Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, stated that DXB received approximately 111 separate alerts of ballistic activity during the episode.

The impact was reflected in all major operational indicators for the first half. Dubai International served 31.5 million passengers, 31.3% less than in the same period the previous year, while aircraft movements fell by 32.1% to 150,600, and cargo dropped by 28.7% to 751,340 tons. This decline contrasts with the 95.2 million passengers recorded in 2025, when the airport closed as the busiest in the world for international traffic.

A Direct Blow to the Gulf Air Hub

Griffiths described the situation as an exceptional experience for any airport manager, as the threats were not limited to a commercial disruption or a preventive closure. "How many CEOs have you interviewed who have been subjected to a direct ballistic attack from an enemy against their infrastructure?" the executive asked during the conversation cited by Fortune. The phrase summarizes the operational and psychological dimension of a crisis that turned air security into an immediate priority.

During the alerts, passengers were moved to safe areas, and aircraft had to land quickly when threats arose. At one point, Dubai Airports was temporarily unable to refuel planes, prompting management to activate a contingency known as "splash and dash": aircraft would leave DXB, land at Al Maktoum International Airport to refuel, and then continue their routes.

Al Maktoum is located approximately 40 kilometers southwest of downtown Dubai and served as a logistical backup amid the disruption. The maneuver did not eliminate the commercial consequences of the war, but it allowed for some connectivity to be maintained when supply at DXB faced restrictions. The episode also highlighted the importance of having complementary airport infrastructure within the same emirate.

The crisis disrupted a network of connections that for years made Gulf airlines essential intermediaries between Europe, Asia, and Australia. Before the conflict, these companies accounted for about a third of the traffic between Europe and Asia and nearly half of the flights between Europe and Australia. By April, transit traffic from the Middle East on routes between Asia and Western Europe had fallen by 47% year-on-year, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy.

Competitors Capture Connecting Passengers

Travelers have diverted their itineraries to alternative hubs such as Seoul, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Istanbul, creating an opportunity for airports that typically compete with Dubai for connecting traffic. Incheon International Airport reported an 18% increase in transit traffic during the first half of the year. With this performance, preliminary data on international passengers placed Incheon above Dubai and Heathrow.

The loss of market share may be significant even if the military disruption ends soon, as connecting routes depend on schedules, aircraft availability, and passenger confidence. Once airlines shift capacity to other corridors, regaining those flows requires quickly coordinating flights, crews, fuel, and sales. However, Griffiths believes that much of the displacement will be temporary and that Dubai's geographical appeal has not vanished.

The executive noted that services that have already returned are recording occupancy rates between 80% and 90%. He also estimated that airlines that shifted aircraft to busy European summer routes could return capacity to the Gulf when winter schedules begin. This combination of demand, location, and seasonal adjustments supports the expectation of a gradual recovery, although several international companies still have suspended their flights.

British Airways has suspended its services to Dubai until the end of October, while Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines also expect to resume operations by that month. Griffiths questioned why some government travel warnings had not been updated according to the conditions that, in his view, existed on the ground. The CEO maintained that it is safe to travel to the United Arab Emirates, a judgment that reflects his position and does not replace the official recommendations of each government.

Recovery and the Bet on Al Maktoum

Monthly data suggests that traffic began to regain momentum after the worst point of the crisis. Dubai Airports reported an increase from 3.5 million passengers in April to 4.5 million in May and 5 million in June, while Griffiths estimated that the overall volume was already around 80% of the previous year's level. Emirates and Flydubai, the two airlines most linked to the local ecosystem, were operating at approximately 90% of their 2025 levels.

At this pace, Griffiths asserted that his confidence in a full recovery was not unfounded and that operations should return to 100% by the end of 2026, as international airlines restore their services. Nevertheless, Dubai Airports expects annual traffic to end "in the 70 million range," a figure significantly lower than the record of 2025. This forecast puts the previous goal of exceeding 100 million passengers this year out of reach.

The slowdown also allowed for progress on internal infrastructure improvements, including the expansion of self-service, biometric systems, smarter operational tools, and changes in passenger flow. Griffiths stated that the priority is to make the airport more efficient, rather than rethinking its strategy due to a crisis he considers transitory. The approach involves treating the disruption as an execution and resilience issue, not as a definitive sign that the connecting model has lost relevance.

This conclusion particularly applies to the Al Maktoum expansion project, valued at USD 35 billion and still on track to begin operations in 2032. The facility is designed to eventually become the largest airport in the world, with a capacity for 260 million passengers and 12 million tons of cargo. Griffiths indicated that the project has accumulated 10 million work hours over the past 15 months, along with 17,000 concrete piles and the movement of 45 million cubic meters of earth.

A Long-Term Bet Despite Uncertainty

The scale of Al Maktoum shows that Dubai continues to plan for a much larger expansion than its cyclical performance in 2026. For the emirate, the airport not only represents an additional terminal but also a central piece of its strategy to sustain international connections, cargo transport, and economic activity linked to aviation. The current downturn reduces expectations for the year but does not alone alter the multi-decade projections that justify the investment.

Griffiths linked this perspective to previous crises, from the financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to his reasoning, the mistake lies in confusing a short-term disruption with a long-term structural change, especially when an air hub retains demand once conditions normalize. The factors that drove Dubai's growth, such as its location between major markets and the scale of its airlines, continue to be part of the equation.

When asked if the war had changed the emirate's aviation plans, Griffiths recounted that the conversation with the president of Dubai Airports was extremely brief. The response, according to the CEO, was "absolutely not," a statement that keeps the official vision of the Al Maktoum expansion and Dubai's role as a global hub intact. This stance, however, will coexist for months with the need to demonstrate that passengers and airlines regain lost confidence.

The immediate challenge will be to close the gap between monthly recovery and the complete normalization of the international network, while competitors try to retain the passengers they captured during the crisis. Dubai has shown visible improvement since April, but still faces suspensions, travel warnings, and an annual forecast well below its record. The outcome of the upcoming winter schedules will be a concrete test to see if traffic will return or if the war has left more lasting changes on the air map.

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