Yusko Expects Strong Bitcoin Rally in 2029

Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, expects that Bitcoin will first undergo a gradual recovery towards its fair value of $105,000 before experiencing a strong increase in 2029. During a conversation with Michaël van de Poppe, recorded on September 22, Yusko emphasized that his analysis is an expectation and not a guarantee. He states that the halving, expected in 2028, maintains the rhythm of the market cycle. Yusko explains that long-term investors buy coins below their calculated value after a decline, after which speculation with borrowed money can lead to an acceleration above that value, followed by a correction. Yusko bases his estimate of the fair value on a model by Timothy Peterson, which uses Metcalfe's law. He expects the model value to increase by 7 to 8 percent annually, which could result in a value of $121,000 to $122,000 over the next two years. However, Yusko warns of lower percentage returns as the market grows, which could lead to a longer cycle with less extreme profits.

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