BCRA Reserves Jumped Over $300 Million: What’s Behind It

The international reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) increased by $315 million this Thursday, September 3, closing at $50.8 billion, primarily driven by a surge in gold prices and a more favorable external scenario for asset valuation. Thus, the gross stock consolidated above $50 billion again, although the improvement was not accompanied by a significant acceleration in official purchases.

In the foreign exchange market, the monetary authority acquired only $15 million, in a session with $898 million traded. Therefore, it absorbed only 2% of the traded volume, a proportion that again showed the weakness of the buying flow despite the high level of activity.

With this result, the net purchases for September rose to $58 million, while the cumulative acquisitions in 2026 reached $14.153 billion. Additionally, the BCRA extended its buying streak to 26 consecutive sessions, although the daily average for the month remained at $19 million, below the $38 million in August, $103 million in July, $68 million in June, and $137 million in May.

The main positive factor was gold, which rose by 2.40% and is estimated to have contributed around $180 million to the accounting value of the reserves. Meanwhile, the global dollar fell by 0.60%, while the euro rose by 0.33%, the pound increased by 0.30%, the yuan appreciated by 0.01%, and the yen gained 1.85%.

This context favored the Central Bank's balance and allowed it to offset the low magnitude of purchases in the official market. Therefore, the reserves data showed a much broader improvement than the BCRA's direct intervention in the foreign exchange market.

On the exchange front, the wholesale dollar fell by 0.20% and closed at $1,508 for sale. The currency thus recorded another decline and fell below the highs reached at the end of August, although it remained above the $1,500 mark.

The session again showed a limited trajectory, with less buying pressure than in the month-end closing days. According to market data, supply gained ground during the session, allowing for a moderate decrease in the exchange rate, while demand for hedging and payments abroad remained active but did not dominate the operations.

The exchange rate remained at 22.92% below the upper band, set at $1,879.97. Consequently, the exchange scheme operated with a wide distance from the upper limit, although the market remains attentive to how much leeway the Government will allow for the wholesale rate to move without re-tightening the rates.

Among the alternative dollars, the MEP fell by 0.40% to $1,528.13, while the cash with settlement remained stable at $1,588.50. In contrast, the blue dollar rose by 0.32% and closed at $1,545. With these values, the gap between the blue and the wholesale rate stood at 2.45%, while the swap was at 3.95%.

In futures, the curve mostly operated lower, with a general decline of 0.13%. Thus, September fell by 0.22%, October decreased by 0.25%, December dropped by 0.21%, and a good part of the 2027 contracts also closed in negative territory, although some longer maturities showed slight increases.

With these movements, the implied rate for September stood at 1.49% monthly, equivalent to 17.93% annualized, while October was at 1.63%, or 19.53% annualized. The decline in the curve accompanied the lower pressure on the wholesale rate and reinforced the perception of a somewhat more orderly foreign exchange market than at the end of August.

In pesos, the rates showed a less homogeneous signal. The TAMAR rose from 23.81% to 24.50%, while the BADLAR slightly increased from 23.06% to 23.13%. Therefore, the money market maintained some tension, although it did not return to the peaks recorded during August.

Thus, the day left a significant improvement in reserves, but not a decisive change in the accumulation program. The BCRA added another buying session, the wholesale rate fell again, and futures declined, although official purchases remained at low levels. The challenge for September will be to maintain exchange rate calm and convert it into a more consistent rebuilding of foreign currencies.

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