Bear Market Over: CryptoQuant Predicts 12 to 24 Months of Upside or Range

Ki Young Ju changed only one word. On October 13, the founder of the analysis company CryptoQuant declared the bitcoin bear market over, using the formula that had helped him call the end of the bull run in March 2025. Back in May, he had expected this decline to last until early 2027.

A Chart, a Buy Signal, and No Price Target

The message published on Tuesday on X is summed up in one line. For Ki Young Ju, the bitcoin bear cycle is over, and the next 12 to 24 months should bring either an increase or sideways movement.

#Bitcoin bear cycle is over, expecting 12-24 months of bullish or sideways price action. https://t.co/eGTRqPivFT pic.twitter.com/FOAG5tnbAE --- Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 13, 2026

The attached chart traces the history of bitcoin, marked by buy and sell signals. These are derived from the PnL Index, a proprietary indicator that measures whether bitcoin holders are, overall, in profit or loss. When this profitability rises above its one-year average, CryptoQuant estimates that the market has exited its bearish phase.

Previous buy signals appeared near the recoveries of 2015, 2019, and 2023. The most recent is a buy signal. However, Ki Young Ju does not set any price target, and his forecast allows for as much sideways movement as bullish movement.

His tweet finally cites an earlier message, built on the same phrase. March 2025: < < Bitcoin bull cycle is over > >. October 2026: < < Bitcoin bear cycle is over > >.

In March 2025, Ki Young Ju Buried the Bull Run Too Early

At that time, he predicted 6 to 12 months of decline or stagnation. Bitcoin recorded a high of $126,000 seven months later, and the analyst publicly acknowledged his mistake.

The decline eventually came in October 2025. Bitcoin lost about half of its value until it hit a low of $60,000 in 2026.

By late May, in the midst of the bear market, he was looking for an exit based on previous cycles. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the profitability of holders had declined for about 18 months after the first waves of profit-taking. Starting from October 2025, the decline could therefore last until early 2027.

In the meantime, bitcoin rose from $60,000 to $87,000 between its low and the end of September, and the profitability of holders rose with it. Its indicators turned earlier than his timeline. By the end of August, CryptoQuant's cycle indicator had returned to bullish territory, the first time since October 2025, and Ki Young Ju began to speak of a new cycle.

Whales Have Taken the Lead in the Market

The large wallets tracked by CryptoQuant, excluding exchanges and mining pools, hold 3.03 million BTC. This is their highest level since November 2025, and their purchases have not been this rapid since February.

<< The big holders have moved. The rest of the market, not yet >>, summarizes Ki Young Ju in the latest CryptoQuant report.

The rest of the market agrees with him. U.S. bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million last week, their worst week since late June. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $81,000 and $84,000 for several days.

Ki Young Ju Does Not Promise an Increase

His forecast also considers a sideways market throughout the period. In this scenario, bitcoin bought today may find itself in the same price range months later, after a series of rises and falls.

If the increase prevails, a correction will eventually follow. After its record of $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin fell back to $60,000 within a few months.

With already significant capital, these rollercoaster rides can be stressful and exhausting. That’s why some investors choose to maintain exposure to bitcoin while cashing in some of their gains in stablecoins as the price rises.

The profits taken this way remain on the blockchain. Left in a wallet, these stablecoins earn nothing. Deposited on DeFi lending protocols, they aim for a yield independent of market direction.

These are the strategies applied by the 150 investors of the Club 25%, aiming for 15 to 25% per year, with only a few hours of monitoring per quarter. The Club publicly manages a real portfolio of $100,000. Each decision is explained to demonstrate what professional management of savings in stablecoins looks like.

Whether it’s an increase or a range, bitcoin has until autumn 2028 to decide, and to see if Ki Young Ju has, this time, buried the right cycle.