Bitcoin in August: Experts Expect Range Testing, Not a Quick Reversal

Bitcoin in August, according to analysts, may remain under pressure: after the recovery in July, the market does not appear ready for sustained growth, and the risk of falling below $60,000 persists.

By the end of July, the leading cryptocurrency had recouped part of its decline and showed double-digit growth from a multi-year low. However, the experts surveyed are not rushing to declare the beginning of a new bullish phase.

The baseline assessment from experts is cautious: August is more likely to be a month of testing key levels than a point of confident reversal.

At the end of July, Bitcoin is trading around $63,500. This is approximately 50% below the historical maximum of October 2025, when the price reached $126,200 per coin. In early July, the BTC price dropped to $58,000 — the lowest level since 2024, after which it rose to $67,000 for several weeks with almost no pullbacks.

As a result, the market has once again found itself in a narrow corridor of $60,000 to $65,000, which has been maintained since early June. Previously, from February to April, the price moved in the range of $65,000 to $75,000, and in May it attempted to stabilize closer to $80,000, but the continuation of growth did not materialize.

Why Bitcoin is Pressured by Rates, Inflation, and a Strong Dollar

Several analysts believe that Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most challenging macroeconomic combinations. Rifat Abyasov, founder of GBIH HOLDINGS, highlights the main factors of pressure:

• high interest rates in the U.S.;
• persistently high inflation;
• expensive oil.

In addition to macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin's price may be influenced by regulation, demand from institutional investors, technological updates to the network, and security news: any strong signal in these areas quickly changes risk appetite.

Leading analyst at the crypto broker Cifra Markets, Alexander Kraiko, holds a similar position. According to him, for Bitcoin to experience substantial growth, the market needs lower rates and, consequently, a decrease in government bond yields. As long as the yields on conservative instruments remain attractive, some capital flows there instead of into cryptocurrencies and other risky assets.

Investor expectations are also influenced by the Federal Reserve: as long as the market does not see conditions for a significant easing of monetary policy, demand for speculative assets remains limited. In such an environment, the U.S. dollar and fixed-income instruments continue to compete with the crypto market for capital.

Leading investment analyst at Go Invest, Nikita Bredikhin, adds that some investors are choosing stocks and other assets without guaranteed returns. In his assessment, traders are currently looking more at the stocks of semiconductor manufacturers and artificial intelligence developers than at cryptocurrencies.

This picture is confirmed by the dynamics of Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds. The first half of the year ended with a net outflow of $5.4 billion — the worst result since the launch of such ETFs in January 2024. In June alone, investors withdrew a record $4.5 billion. The inflow in July, as described by Rifat Abyasov, was around zero: the week ending July 24 brought in only $33.8 million.

August Historically Remains a Weak Month for the Crypto Market

Crypto expert Viktor Pershikov points out the seasonality: August is rarely a strong month for digital assets. Historical statistics confirm this. From 2013 to 2025, the average return in August was 1.12%, but the median was negative — minus 7.49%. This difference indicates that negative periods occurred more frequently.

An additional factor of uncertainty remains regulation in the U.S. Rifat Abyasov specifically highlights the CLARITY Act, an important bill for the crypto industry. Its potential adoption is seen by many market participants as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and the sector as a whole, but the document has not been agreed upon for over a year.

The technical picture is also important for the market. The BTC/USD pair continues to hold in a sideways range, and buyers are not yet showing the strength necessary for a confident breakout above local resistances. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin blockchain remains the fundamental infrastructure of the asset, but the price is currently reacting more to capital flows, interest rates, and the overall risk appetite of investors.

What Should Investors Do: Levels, Scenarios, and Risks

Rufat Abyasov believes that the market is in the final phase before the start of a new Bitcoin cycle. He reminds us that in previous periods, bear markets lasted about 400 days. Therefore, the current prices are deemed suitable for gradual accumulation, but he warns that a short-term decline to the area below $60,000–55,000 is still possible.

In the logic of such cycles, the market usually goes through several phases: accumulation after a strong decline, bullish growth, distribution at high levels, and bearish retracement. This is important for the price because, in the accumulation phase, demand is formed gradually, and sharp growth often begins only after breaking out of the sideways range.

Abyasov's forecast for the coming month boils down to three scenarios:

• Base scenario: movement in the corridor of $58,000–68,000; probability — 50%;
• Negative scenario: falling below $58,000 and declining to $50,000–55,000; probability — 30%;
• Positive scenario: growth above $67,000 with a target of $71,000–75,000; probability — 20%.

The key support zone is around $60,000–61,000. A consolidation above $67,000 could break the downward trend.

Alexander Kraiko also allows for a rise in Bitcoin to $70,000, but believes that a new wave of decline may likely begin afterward.

In the horizon of the next two months, the target remains the area around $53,000.

At the same time, Kraiko believes that on a global scale, the market is already at interesting levels for long-term entry.

Nikita Bredikhin also advises forming positions in Bitcoin and strong projects but urges caution regarding meme coins and young altcoins. He does not rule out a retest of $60,000, where the lower boundary of the sideways trend currently lies.

Victor Pershikov gives one of the most optimistic forecasts for August. He anticipates a 7–10% increase in the cryptocurrency market capitalization and does not rule out BTC moving to $70,000. However, in his assessment, it is still far from the completion of the correction cycle.

Serious movements may not occur until the fourth quarter of this year.

In such a situation, it is important for investors to look not only at the price of Bitcoin. The overall backdrop is most influenced by:

• Credit rates;
• Inflation;
• ETF dynamics;
• Interest in risk assets;
• Behavior of major market participants.

Even if cryptocurrency appears cheaper than previous highs, the main digital currency remains volatile, and August may become more of a test of patience than a month of significant breakthroughs. Among the benchmarks, market participants are also monitoring the infrastructure of the industry, including major services like Coinbase, as sentiments around such platforms often reflect the overall interest in crypto assets.