Bitcoin: Strategy Estimates a Gain of $20.91 Billion in Q3, but Remains in the Red

Strategy estimates a gain of $20.91 billion on its digital assets in the third quarter of 2026, according to its SEC filing on October 5. This gain is accounting-based and not realized: it reflects the revaluation of its 847,666 bitcoins, valued at $70.82 billion as of September 30, with an acquisition cost of $63.95 billion. This follows a loss of $8.32 billion in the second quarter, but the balance over nine months remains negative by about $1.86 billion, according to Cointribune's calculations. The final results for the third quarter are yet to be published.

In Brief

• 847,666 bitcoins held as of September 30, at an average cost of $75,437 (SEC filing of October 5).
• Balance sheet value: $70.82 billion, which is $6.87 billion above the purchase price (Cointribune calculation).
• 334 bitcoins purchased from October 1 to 4 for $28.7 million, at an average of $85,839 (same filing).

Why Does Strategy Show a Gain of $20.91 Billion in Q3?

Because Strategy accounts for its bitcoins at fair value, that is, at market price. According to Strategy's SEC filing, the gain of $20.91 billion on its digital assets in Q3 is an estimate from management. This change is primarily related to the revaluation of its bitcoin reserve, driven by the rise in BTC prices.

According to the Q2 10-Q and the filing of October 5, the value of bitcoins recorded on the balance sheet increased from $49.67 billion on June 30 to $70.82 billion on September 30. Based on our calculations from this data, the accounting value of Strategy's Bitcoin reserve increased by about 42% over the period, despite a limited increase in the number of bitcoins held. This means that the gain comes from a revaluation and not from cashing out.

How Many Bitcoins Did Strategy Hold on September 30, 2026?

Strategy held 847,666 bitcoins on September 30, 2026, according to the SEC filing of October 5. Their cumulative acquisition cost amounts to $63.95 billion, which is an average price of $75,436.60 per bitcoin. Their accounting value stands at $70.82 billion.

As of June 30, the company held about 846,000 BTC, according to the Q10. Based on our calculations from this data, this represents a net increase of about 1,700 bitcoins over the quarter.

Is Strategy Actually Profitable on Its Bitcoin?

On paper, yes. According to the SEC filing of October 5, its bitcoins are worth $70.82 billion on the balance sheet as of September 30, compared to $63.95 billion paid. Based on our calculations from this data, this represents $6.87 billion more. The key threshold is the average cost of $75,436.60. Bitcoin was trading around $83,500 on September 30, nearly 11% above.

This means that the reserve has returned above its acquisition cost, whereas it was $14.27 billion below as of June 30. However, the cumulative accounting loss since January has not been erased.

Sources: Q2 2026 10-Q and 8-K of October 5. Q3 figure: management estimate, not audited.*

Why Is the Gain of $20.91 Billion Not Cash Realized?

Because it measures a change in value and not a sale. Therefore, this figure does not measure a realized profit. It is a change resulting from fair value accounting, estimated by management and not audited by KPMG, according to the SEC filing. This means it has not contributed to Strategy's cash flow.

According to our calculations, by adding this gain to the unrealized loss of $22.77 billion from the first half, the balance over nine months remains negative by about $1.86 billion.

This gain also comes with an estimated deferred tax charge of $1.88 billion, not yet paid at this stage, according to the SEC filing. On the cash side, from September 28 to October 4, Strategy spent $176.3 million to buy back STRC, its variable-rate preferred stock.

Our goal is for STRC to trade, over time, between $99 and $100.
Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, Q2 earnings release, July 30, 2026

Has Strategy Continued to Buy Bitcoin After Q3?

Yes, but in a limited way. As of September 30, Strategy held 847,666 BTC. By October 4, it held 848,000, according to the SEC filing of October 5.

The last purchase amounts to $28.7 million, or 334 BTC acquired between October 1 and 4, at an average of $85,839.

The final figures for Q3 will be included in the earnings release, expected on October 29 according to the earnings schedule. However, Strategy has not confirmed this date. This means that the result for Q4 will depend on the difference between the bitcoin price and its level on September 30, around $83,500, to be followed in our report on Strategy.