CoinShares Highlights Pressure on Bitcoin Miners and States Companies Will Continue to Migrate to AI Sector

In a report published this Tuesday (15), CoinShares highlights that Bitcoin mining has gone through its toughest period since the 2024 halving. This is due to a long and sustained decline in the network's hashrate over the past few months.

However, miners do not seem to be worried about this. After all, many are migrating to serve the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector and, according to analysts, they are unlikely to return.

The only way for the hashrate to start growing again would be an increase in Bitcoin prices, but some miners might miss out on this race due to long contracts with the AI sector.

Bitcoin Hashrate Fell 50% Compared to Its Historical Trend

Although the future does not repeat the past, CoinShares states that the most effective way to assess the hashrate is by analyzing historical patterns. As an example, analysts highlight a regular pattern between halving cycles.

"In the halvings of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the hashrate typically fell to about 50% below the trend line in the six months following each event. China's ban in 2021 was particularly abrupt due to its sudden nature. [...] The overall pattern is consistent: an initial drop, a recovery in the middle of the cycle, and an increase in activity approximately one year before the next halving. The logic is simple. Miners increase capital expenditures before each halving to remain competitive, raising the hashrate well above trend, while the subsequent reduction in block rewards decreases revenue and, with it, subsequent investment." Analysts highlight that the hashrate fell 50% compared to its historical trend, but this has happened in other cycles. Source: CoinShares/Rep.

Despite this, the text emphasizes that this is one of the most challenging periods for mining. For example, the first half of 2026 recorded the first six-month decline since China's ban in the first half of 2021.

On the other hand, analysts believe that the hashrate will rise again as the 2028 halving approaches, for the reasons explained above.

Study Also Shared Each Company's Costs to Mine One Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,200 at the time of this writing, down 3.3% in the last 24 hours due to the vote on the Clarity Act in the U.S.

In another section, CoinShares also published a chart revealing how much each company spends to mine 1 Bitcoin. The cost for some of them is above the current price of the cryptocurrency.

"The weighted average cost, before taxes, to produce one bitcoin among the listed miners was approximately $75,500 in the second quarter of 2026." MARA Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin miners in the market, is reportedly incurring losses in its operations. Source: CoinShares/Rep.

Furthermore, analysts explain that each miner has different costs in their operations.

These include expenses for electricity, sales, general and administrative expenses, depreciation and amortization, taxes, debt expenses, and stock-based compensation. Electricity (in black) is just part of the miners' expenses. However, some manage to obtain subsidies in their operations, reducing costs. Source: CoinShares/Rep.

Miners are Migrating to the AI Sector and May Not Return

Another major highlight of the report is the migration of these miners to meet the demand of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector.

"Converting mining infrastructure into suitable facilities for AI costs between $8 million and $15 million per MW, according to estimates, compared to $0.7 million to $1 million for mining, thus the premium mainly benefits operators with viable conversion paths and contracted tenants. Still, the direction is clear: regulation and network congestion have reversed the historical discount applied to mining locations, transforming what was once seen as stranded and low-quality infrastructure into part of the most scarce licensed power capacity in the U.S."

Among the companies undergoing this partial or total migration are IREN, TeraWulf, Riot, Hut8, and MARA.

MARA's AI cloud revenue, for example, reached $70.5 million, surpassing mining revenue for the first time, which is currently at $66.7 million.

In conclusion, analysts emphasize that this migration is expected to continue accelerating, and only a surge in Bitcoin prices could bring these miners back to the network, but not all of them.

"AI/HPC revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026. Over $100 billion in contracts currently support only about $1.1 billion in annualized revenue, but Core Scientific is generating revenue on 437 MW, the rental of Black Pearl from Cipher began in August, and IREN aims for $4 billion in operational ARR by December. We expect the revenue pace to more than double by the next report. A recovery in BTC is unlikely to reverse the transition to AI. Core Scientific paid $41.9 million to terminate its 15 EH/s agreement with Proto, while several companies have committed locations with 15-year contracts. Any new investment in mining will likely come from Riot, MARA, HIVE, and Bitdeer, which have maintained greater flexibility.

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