Crypto, Starting to Doubt the Narrative

Crypto may be entering an era of "good money driving out bad money."
Written by: Joe Zhou, Foresight News
Having attended TOKEN2049 in Singapore for four consecutive years, this is the most restrained edition I have seen in terms of "chasing narratives and creating concepts."
In previous TOKEN2049 events, discussions revolved around ideals of decentralization, the metaverse, and Web3 mass adoption, along with a self-created metric system for measuring project value: TVL, active addresses, transaction volume. In contrast, there was relatively little discussion about when these visions would materialize or how to achieve sustainable revenue.
This year, I heard more of another language:
"We have launched QR payments in 18 countries, with Indonesia and Brazil performing exceptionally well in the past year."
"Last month, over 100,000 users used stablecoins for payments in real scenarios (QR code, card payments, bank transfers), with an average monthly payment amount exceeding $100."
"Our quantitative strategy can achieve an annualized return of 15%... this year 10%-20%, even if we don't outperform the market."
From payment scenarios to real users, and then to investment returns, people are starting to use more concrete numbers to prove their business.
At this year's TOKEN2049, it seems that crypto practitioners have stopped telling stories. More and more people are starting to ask: Where are the users, where does the revenue come from, and ultimately, who benefits from the profits?

I Heard a High-Frequency Term: Value Capture

This year, the most frequently mentioned term I heard both inside and outside the venue was "value capture."

A CEO of a stablecoin company told me when discussing "value capture": The most profitable position in crypto may not be where transactions occur, but where funds are held.
This year, a large number of institutions have emerged trying to issue stablecoins, such as Stripe's OUSD; OSL's USDGO; 21 financial institutions from the US, Europe, and Asia forming an alliance; and 37 European financial institutions including BNP Paribas forming the Qivalis alliance... Giants are issuing stablecoins precisely because they see the value capture ability behind this business: those who create transactions may not be the ones making the most money.
"USDT is the best example; exchanges provide the largest entry point, yet Tether can earn interest through reserve assets," he said.
A founder of a secondary fund managing over a hundred million dollars also talked to me about value capture. He bluntly stated: "Ethereum has no value, and it won't have a chance in the next few years."
The reason is simple; in his view, the problem lies in Ethereum's weak value capture ability and revenue generation capability: the value created by the network ecosystem has not been fully converted into value that ETH holders can capture.
"Even TRON's value capture ability is several times that of Ethereum."
Data seems to support this judgment: In the second quarter of 2026, TRON's network fees were approximately $699 million, which is 13 times Ethereum's approximately $52.5 million; if we look at the value captured through token destruction, TRON's value is about $90 million, while Ethereum's is about $17.1 million, with the former still being more than five times the latter.
The overall value of the Ethereum ecosystem may be higher than TRON, but that does not mean ETH is a better value capture asset.
A growth leader from a leading prediction market also discussed "value capture." "Our API has already been adopted by several exchanges, and just one of them can bring in millions of dollars in revenue each month."
Three different tracks, three different business models, pointing to the same question: People are starting to talk about the value created by projects, and how much of it can be converted into revenue, profit, and the value that investors can truly capture?
Now, if a project can only tell a narrative but cannot clarify where the revenue comes from, how the business model operates, and who ultimately owns the value, more and more people may not even have the patience to listen.
The era where telling a good narrative could attract attention and funding is coming to an end. Crypto is poised to enter an era of "good money driving out bad money."

Crypto Begins to Show Five Industries That "Will Not Disappear"

Stablecoin companies are occupying the most prominent positions at the venue.
This year at the conference, I clearly felt the presence of companies related to stablecoin payments. Companies like Stripe, Circle, Aeon Pay, Alchemy Pay, and DCS Pay related to stablecoins almost occupied half of the entire venue, making payments and stablecoins an undeniable main thread of the conference.
Compared to previous years, stablecoins are no longer just infrastructure in exchanges, but are increasingly moving towards payments, settlements, and the flow of funds in the real world.
In contrast, the once-hot tracks of NFTs, the metaverse, blockchain games, and BTCFi have significantly decreased in presence. L2s can no longer gain the same level of attention solely based on a new narrative as they did in previous years. Projects like Blast, once favored by the market, are also facing challenges such as slowing growth and declining ecosystem activity.
This does not mean these tracks have disappeared, but rather that relying solely on narratives is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain long-term enthusiasm for a project. Where are the users, where do transactions come from, and how is revenue sustained are becoming harder questions to avoid.
If we rewind time to before 2024, there were not many industries in crypto that truly formed sustained demand and had relatively clear business models. Exchanges and stablecoins are two of the most typical: the former earns revenue through trading activities, while the latter establishes a business model through reserve asset income and related services.
Now, three other industries are also gradually showing clearer business logic: public chains and DeFi, Perp DEX, and prediction markets. Especially the latter two, which are no longer new concepts, but have only recently seen a new round of demand growth and market explosion.

Public chains and DeFi, exchanges, stablecoins, Perp DEX, and prediction markets—these five industries are becoming the foundational businesses in crypto that are more likely to transcend cycles.
Their business models vary, but they share a common point: users do not use them to support a grand narrative, but because they provide specific financial services.
Exchanges meet trading needs, stablecoins solve the circulation and settlement of digital dollars, public chains and DeFi provide open financial infrastructure, Perp DEX meets on-chain derivatives trading needs, and prediction markets allow people to trade around future events.
Of course, this does not mean that every project in these five industries will survive, nor does it mean that their business models are all mature. What is truly worth noting is that they correspond to a sustained demand that exists, rather than a heat that can only be maintained by market sentiment.

The Phenomenon of Reinventing the Wheel Still Exists

Crypto has finally begun to have real businesses, but it still has not escaped the industry's most classic flaw: reinventing the wheel.
There are more and more Perp DEXs, more and more prediction markets, and more and more stablecoin-related public chains. Crypto is slowly returning to rationality, but that does not mean the industry has stopped its blind expansion. On the contrary, a new wave of "chain-making" is forming.
Circle has created Arc, Stripe has created Tempo, and Stable is also laying out its own chain. Stablecoins are making chains, Perp DEXs are making chains, and prediction markets are exploring their own chains, with various applications wanting to have their own infrastructure.
Not all of these chains will necessarily fail, but the question is: when almost every track wants to create its own chain, does the market really need so many public chains?
Crypto has already seen too many public chains. Whether new chains can gain enough users, liquidity, and developers, and whether they can survive in the next cycle, remains a big question mark.
Similar stories have played out more than once in the past.
Perp DEXs became popular, and a batch of projects flooded in; when prediction markets became popular, another batch of projects followed. After the hype subsides, what often remains are only a few leading players. The market can accommodate many competitors, but it may not be able to support dozens of similar products existing simultaneously in every hot track.
If the above tracks at least have real trading demand, then Agent Payment may still be in another stage: the narrative is ahead of the business.

This year's official agenda even directly arranged topics like "The Agent Economy: Why AI Needs Crypto" and "Bitcoin for the Agentic Economy." The combination of AI Agents and Crypto is clearly a direction the industry is actively betting on.
However, after talking with practitioners from ten stablecoin companies, the feedback I received was not so optimistic: at least in the businesses they are involved in, AI Agent payments have not shown any signs of scalable implementation.
This does not mean that Agent Payment has no future, but rather that the current market discussion around it may have outpaced real demand and business progress. It has thus become a cautionary example: Crypto is beginning to value real business, but it may still be prematurely paying for a future that has yet to materialize.
The industry has matured, but it has not matured to the point of no longer making mistakes.
Everyone on stage is discussing Agents, but those who are truly doing payments offstage tell me: Agent Payment has not truly happened yet.
Note: This article is an observational note, containing the subjective views of the author and interviewees, for communication and discussion purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice.

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