Economy: BoE Moves Oil, Bitcoin Rises Anyway

Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be. This morning, four macro appointments were announced to close an already busy fortnight: the Bank of England's rate decision, followed by a barrage of three U.S. indicators on employment, industry, and housing. The numbers are in. Verdict: a Bank of England that hesitates without reassuring itself, a U.S. labor market stronger than expected, and a housing sector that continues to decline.

Key points of this article:

• The Bank of England maintained its key rate at 3.75%, while issuing a warning about the volatility of oil prices.
• In the United States, economic indicators revealed a labor market stronger than expected, while the housing sector continued to decline.

BoE Sticks to Its Line, But Bailey Shakes Up Oil

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee kept its key rate at 3.75%, by a vote of 6 to 3. The same three hawks, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill, continue to call for an immediate hike to 4%. This marks the sixth consecutive status quo this year: routine, on the surface.

Except that Governor Andrew Bailey did not play the reassuring silence card. The longer the volatility of oil prices persists, due to the conflict in the Middle East, the more a rate hike becomes likely, according to him. A status quo accompanied by a warning is never very reassuring. The pound sterling reacted immediately, slipping to 1.336 dollars in the afternoon (rate to be adjusted before publication), its lowest level since late July, according to Pound Sterling Live. Rate markets have rather revised their bets downward: a hike by the end of the year is now fully priced in, with about a 50% probability of a second move thereafter, according to Bloomberg. Source: TradingView (OANDA), GBP/USD over 24 hours on September 17, 2026, 4:54 PM

Three U.S. Indicators, Two Good Surprises and One Disappointment

Let's move to Washington, where three figures were released all at once in the afternoon, Paris time.

First verdict: employment holds steady. Weekly jobless claims came in at 196,000, against 208,000 expected and 206,000 the previous week. Far from the concerns that could have arisen after the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, the U.S. labor market is still breathing.

Second figure, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, published at 37.8 points, well above the 30.5 expected by consensus. A nice surprise on paper, except that it must be immediately put into perspective: in August, this same index was at 47.4. The regional industry is slowing down, but it continues to slow down less quickly than feared.

Housing, on the other hand, finds no excuse. August housing starts fell to 1.275 million units on an annualized basis, down 2.6% from July (1.309 million) and below the consensus of 1.31 million. High construction costs, expensive financing, labor shortages: the list of explanations has not changed for months, only the continuous decline accumulates month after month.

Bitcoin Rises Despite Central Bank Waltz

And while London and Washington send contradictory signals, Bitcoin rises by about 1% this Thursday afternoon, surpassing $76,400 (rate to be adjusted before publication). Not enough to erase the hangover of the week, between the failure of the CLARITY Act and the Fed's rate hike, but a signal that contrasts with the prevailing nervousness.

The explanation likely lies in the cross-reading of the four publications of the day. A solid U.S. employment figure without surprise on the upside does not add upward pressure on rates beyond what is already anticipated. A disappointing housing market pushes towards more monetary caution in the long term. As for the BoE, its somewhat grating status quo does not directly change the Fed's calculations. A busy Thursday, in the end, that closes the densest macro fortnight in months without disrupting the underlying trajectory of the crypto market.

Friday remains, and the Bank of Japan's decision, the last major monetary appointment of the week.

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