November Starts Busy with Key Developments from November 2-6! US Elections, Employment Report, and Fed Messages

Global markets will focus on the US midterm elections and a busy economic data calendar during the week of November 2-6. In addition to the elections that will determine the new distribution of Congress, the non-farm payroll, unemployment, and wage data to be announced on Friday are among the most important topics of the week. The statements from Fed officials, the US Treasury's borrowing program, and international events in the cryptocurrency sector will also be monitored.

The results of the US midterm elections, which will take place on Tuesday, November 3, will be followed throughout the night extending to November 4, Turkey time. Economic activity, labor market, and price pressure indicators will accompany the election agenda throughout the week.

Employment and Price Pressures in the US Economy to be Monitored

The first significant data of the week will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, to be announced on Monday, November 2, at 18:00. The index is expected to rise from the previous level of 54.5 to 54.6. Alongside the main data, the report's price and employment indices will also be monitored. The Fed's loan conditions survey (SLOOS), to be published at 22:00, will reveal changes in banks' lending standards and credit demand.

While the elections are ongoing on Tuesday, the US JOLTS job openings will be announced at 18:00. The number of job openings, which was 7 million 79 thousand in the previous period, is expected to rise to 7 million 130 thousand.

Data flow will accelerate on Wednesday, November 4. The ADP private sector employment increase, to be announced at 16:15, is expected to decline from the previous 90 thousand to 65 thousand. At 16:30, the US Treasury's quarterly borrowing program will be announced. Then, at 18:00, the ISM Services PMI will be released. The expectation is 54.8 against the previous level of 54.9, while price pressures and employment indicators in the services sector will also be closely monitored components of the report.

On Thursday at 16:30, initial and continuing unemployment claims will be followed. Initial claims are expected to rise from the previous week's 194 thousand to 195 thousand. The third-quarter data, to be announced at the same time, is expected to show an increase in productivity from 1.4% to 2.5%, while the increase in unit labor costs is projected to decline from 1.2% to 0.6%.

On the Fed front, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's panel speech will be monitored at 16:50 on Thursday, followed by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's interview at 17:10. On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams's interview in Frankfurt will be followed at 12:30.

The busiest data hour of the week will be on Friday, November 6, at 16:30. The US non-farm payroll increase is expected to rise from the previous 29 thousand to 65 thousand, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.2%. The monthly increase in average hourly earnings is expected to be at 0.3%. The previous increase was 0.1.

On Friday at 17:10, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak. At 18:00, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence and inflation expectations for November will be announced. Consumer confidence is expected to rise from the previous level of 48.0 to 48.2, while one and five-year inflation expectations will also be monitored.

Two International Events in the Cryptocurrency Sector

In addition to the economic and political agenda, meetings in financial technologies and the Ethereum ecosystem are also on the week's calendar. Hong Kong FinTech Week will be held from November 2-6. The main conference of the event will take place on November 2-3.

Ethereum developers and researchers will gather at Devcon 8, to be held in Mumbai, India from November 3-6. Thus, throughout the week, developments in traditional financial markets will be accompanied by the technical agenda of the blockchain ecosystem.

Data expectations do not paint a one-sided picture for the US labor market: while a slowdown is expected in ADP employment growth, an increase is anticipated in non-farm payrolls and job openings. Therefore, evaluating employment data alongside wages and labor costs will be crucial for understanding the economic outlook.

📅 Key Developments of the Week | November 2-6, 2026

⏰ All times are in Turkey time.

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