Performance Gap Between US Closed-Source Models and Chinese Open-Source Models Narrows to 4.4 Months

The performance gap between cutting-edge closed-source models in the US and open-source weight models in China has narrowed to approximately 4.4 months. The latest report from Mozilla, "State of Open Source AI," indicates that open-source models represented by Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 lag behind Anthropic's Fable 5 by only three points in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index composite score, while costing about 30% of its price. METR's calculations show that the strongest closed-source models can reliably complete human expert tasks lasting about 12 hours, whereas the strongest open-source models can currently complete tasks of about 7 hours reliably. It is expected that open-source models will catch up to the current closed-source level in about 4 months. Mozilla suggests that most organizations should default to using open-source models and only pay a premium for closed-source models in scenarios requiring specialized, high-intensity retrieval and long context.

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