PitchBook Predicts Kalshi Valuation Could Reach $42.1 Billion

PitchBook forecasts in a 46-page report that the baseline valuation for the market platform Kalshi is approximately $30.4 billion, with a potential peak of $42.1 billion in a strong market performance, and a pessimistic scenario of $22.8 billion. Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series F funding round in May this year, with a post-money valuation of $22 billion. The report anticipates that Kalshi's revenue will reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profits of $3.7 billion, and believes that partnerships with platforms and market makers like Robinhood and Susquehanna will help solidify market share. The regulatory risks associated with the sports prediction market are identified as key variables affecting valuation, with the sports market currently contributing approximately 69.9% of Kalshi's event fee revenue; this share rises to 82.4% when including multi-event combinations and other Exotics products. Several U.S. states and tribal nations are suing over the legality of Kalshi's sports prediction products, with discrepancies in related cases between federal appellate courts, and the Supreme Court is expected to intervene next year. PitchBook believes that even if the final ruling is unfavorable to Kalshi, the company may still adjust its business model through state-level licenses and the development of non-sports prediction products, but a significant decline in sports revenue would substantially impact its growth expectations.

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