Ned Davis Research Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $230,000 by 2035

As Bitcoin trades around $76,000, Ned Davis Research's long-term valuation study indicates that the cryptocurrency could reach approximately $170,000 by 2030 and $230,000 by 2035. The firm's chief alternative strategist, John LaForge, bases this projection on how Bitcoin can be valued rather than short-term price volatility.

Demand Emerges in Valuation Framework

LaForge lists seven different approaches that investors can use to evaluate Bitcoin. These include network adoption, comparison with gold, growth in money supply, production costs, portfolio risk, adoption cycles, and the widely followed stock-to-flow model. Ned Davis Research stands out as an independent research firm known for its market strategies and asset allocation analyses.

Among these methods, network adoption appears to be the most decisive. This approach directly tracks Bitcoin-specific data. Metrics such as the number of wallet holders, exposure through exchange-traded funds, addresses with balances, and daily active addresses are monitored within this framework.

John LaForge emphasizes that Bitcoin's value can be understood not only through its limited supply but also by examining whether new investors and users continue to enter the network.

This perspective places demand at the center of the valuation discussion. LaForge argues that limited supply alone will not be sufficient and thus takes a cautious stance towards the stock-to-flow model. According to him, while the model emphasizes decreasing new supply, it leaves open the question of whether the growth on the demand side is strong enough to support some high historical forecasts.

Mining Costs Signal Critical Threshold in the Short Term

One of the notable indicators in the short term has been Bitcoin's production cost. According to CoinShares' latest mining report, publicly traded miners had a pre-tax weighted average cash cost of approximately $75,500 per Bitcoin in the second quarter. This figure is very close to the current market price.

Mini Glossary: Stock-to-flow is a valuation approach that tracks the ratio of the existing stock of assets with limited supply to the annual new production. The model assumes that the decreasing new supply after Bitcoin halving could influence the price.

Production cost does not imply a definitive floor. However, if Bitcoin remains below miners' costs for an extended period, it could create financial pressure on businesses. In such a scenario, some miners may resort to reserve sales or reduce their operations.

CoinShares data reveals that publicly traded miners operated with a cash cost of approximately $75,500 per Bitcoin in the second quarter.

Gap Widens Between ETF Outflows and Long-Term Targets

The near-term outlook for the market paints a weaker picture. On September 15, there was a net outflow of $450 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This was the largest daily outflow seen since June. An additional approximately $296 million was withdrawn from the products on September 16. In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $3.52 billion in August.

As Bitcoin recently tested the $75,000 region, it appears that the price is at a sensitive level both technically and in terms of mining economics. Therefore, the targets of $170,000 and $230,000 continue to depend not only on fixed supply but also on developments in adoption and demand.

With Bitcoin around $76,300, it needs to increase by approximately 123% to reach $170,000 and by about 201% to rise to $230,000. These levels are not definitive results but are indicative estimates. Nevertheless, Ned Davis Research's framework allows investors to focus not only on price targets but also on measurable indicators that could support these targets.