Willy Woo Warns of Historic Decoupling of Bitcoin; Darkfost Disagrees

• Woo projects a bullish scenario for bitcoin based on the current lack of correlation.
• Analyst Darkfost contradicts Woo, arguing that he does not observe a prolonged decoupling.

The current behavior of bitcoin (BTC) against the stock market has sparked a debate about the correlation metrics used by various analysts in the sector.

Market analyst Willy Woo stated on September 6, 2026, that the digital asset is experiencing a level of decoupling from traditional stocks not seen in nearly a decade.

According to Woo's perspective, the last time bitcoin decoupled from the stock market to this extent was in 2015, a period that served as a prelude to the bullish cycle of 2017.
Bitcoin lost correlation with the S&P 500 index, according to the chart shown by Willy Woo. Source: Willy Woo -- X.

Woo bases his analysis on the comparative historical behavior of both markets. The analyst recalls that, during 2014, the stock market remained bullish while bitcoin went through a bearish market with no correlation whatsoever.

Subsequently, between 2015 and 2016, stocks exhibited bearish and unstable behavior for two years, while bitcoin began a recovery phase that culminated in an exponential movement in 2017, at which point both markets realigned with an upward trend.

Under Woo's reading, the current market configuration looks similar to that historical cycle. The analyst maintains that bitcoin's liquidity continues to strengthen, while stocks begin to show signs of fragility.

However, this interpretation of the data has been publicly questioned. The analyst from the on-chain data provider CryptoQuant, identified as Darkfost, responded to Woo expressing his disagreement with the statistical method used to reach that conclusion. "I don’t know how you calculate it, but I don’t see this at the moment," Darkfost stated regarding the alleged decoupling between the assets.

The CryptoQuant analyst suggested that Woo might be using a high time frame (TF) average, but warned that, even under that scenario, the conclusion is difficult to sustain because, according to his metrics, there has not been a recent period of strong decoupling.

To support his argument, Darkfost shared his own reading in the chart <<Bitcoin Price and the S&P 500 Index Correlation>> from CryptoQuant.
The correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 is positive, according to the CryptoQuant chart. Source: Darkfost -- X.

This chart displays the correlation coefficient through a shaded area; unlike Woo's chart, the measurement shared by CryptoQuant shows that the recent correlation has remained fluctuating but without recording the deep and prolonged negative divergence that supports the original premise.

This methodological discrepancy highlights the complexity of measuring bitcoin's behavior against traditional finance depending on the chosen time frame and measurement criteria.

The confirmation of Woo's thesis will depend on whether, in the coming months, stocks indeed confirm a pullback due to fragility while bitcoin manages to sustain its liquidity independently.

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