SPCX Stock After a 7.6% Jump: Bull Case, Bear Case and the Price Targets From $235 to $300

SPCX stock is one of the most closely watched tickers on the market this week. On October 5, 2026, SpaceX shares rose about 7.6% and closed near $171, the highest close since June, after Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target and called the company "unusually cheap" ahead of Starship Flight 15. The move came only days after Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, so the rally had both an analyst catalyst and an operational one behind it.

The jump has split opinion. Bulls argue that SPCX stock is still undervalued once Starlink, defense work and AI compute are counted together, while bears point to unconfirmed launch timing, unproven compute pricing and a sharp short-term run up. Analyst targets reflect that gap, with an average near $235 as of October 2 and Morgan Stanley at $300. This article walks through the bull case, the bear case and what the price targets actually assume, so readers can judge for themselves where the risk and the upside sit.

SPCX Stock Jumps to Its Highest Close Since June

SPCX stock rose about 7.6% on October 5, 2026 and closed near $171, according to Yahoo Finance. That was its highest close since June. Intraday quotes from different outlets that day showed prices between roughly $167 and $172, so the closing level is the safer reference point.

The move followed a note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who reiterated a positive rating and a $300 price target. Jonas called the shares "unusually cheap" and said investors have only a few weeks to buy before Starship Flight 15. The rally also came days after Starship Flight 14, which reached orbit and deployed Starlink satellites, so sentiment was already improving.

The Bull Case for SpaceX Stock

The core of the bull case is that SpaceX should not be valued as a single business. Jonas argued that the stock looks expensive when viewed only as a telecom company, an aerospace and defense company or an AI company, but looks different when all three are counted together. He described it as an "and" problem rather than an "or" problem.

The second pillar is valuation relative to growth. Morgan Stanley says SPCX trades at about 0.3x its 2028 EV/EBIT to growth ratio, roughly 40% below comparable large AI companies at around 0.5x. Even at $300, the multiple would reach only about 0.6x, which Jonas compared to Amazon and placed below Meta and Alphabet. These are analyst estimates, not company-reported figures.

The third pillar is AI compute. Morgan Stanley estimates that each additional $10 per watt of compute pricing above consensus would add more than $40 billion to 2027 revenue, about one-third of projected totals, without adding capacity. This makes compute pricing the single most sensitive assumption in the model, which cuts both ways.

Operational momentum supports the story. Starship Flight 14 deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites, a Falcon 9 carried NASA's Crew-13 to the International Space Station, and Alphabet's Project Suncatcher satellite began testing AI chips in orbit. Elon Musk also showed Starlink streaming several football games at once on a United Airlines flight, which the market read as a competitive signal against Amazon's low Earth orbit network.

The Bear Case for SpaceX Stock

The bear case starts with timing. Jonas expects Flight 15 in late October or early November, but at least one tracking site lists December, and no official date has been confirmed. Earlier in the quarter, a test flight slip to September 28 was followed by reports of retail investors selling shares. If Flight 15 slips again, the "few weeks" argument loses its urgency.

Flight 14 itself was not flawless. It reached orbit, but one engine shut down during ascent, and Flight 15 is expected to attempt a ship catch. Jonas said a successful catch could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO. A failed or delayed attempt could produce the opposite reaction, especially after a 7.6% run-up.

Valuation is the second risk. The bull case depends on compute pricing that has not been proven in contracts. If real prices come in below the assumptions, the revenue upside shrinks quickly. Competition is the third risk: Delta Air Lines chose Amazon's service rather than Starlink, which shows the connectivity market is not uncontested.

Low institutional ownership is a double-edged point. Jonas said that when he asked 40 clients whether they own SpaceX, "nobody raised a hand." That can mean room for new buyers, but it can also mean large investors are not yet convinced.

What the Price Targets From $235 to $300 Show

As of October 2, TipRanks reported 27 Buy ratings against 6 more skeptical ratings, with an average price target of about $235, or roughly 49% above the price at that time. Morgan Stanley's $300 target sits well above that average. Because Morgan Stanley is an outlier on the high side, the target is better read as the optimistic end of the range rather than the consensus.

Price targets also depend on assumptions that change after each launch, earnings report or contract announcement. A target of $235 and a target of $300 can both be reasonable if analysts disagree on compute pricing, Starlink growth or Starship cadence. Readers comparing targets should look at the assumptions behind them rather than the headline number.

Trading SPCX Price Moves on WEEX Spot

For traders who follow crypto and event-driven markets together, SPCX is an unusual case because its biggest catalyst is a dated, watchable event: a Starship flight. WEEX lists SPCX-USDT on Spot, so a trader who already holds USDT for BTC or ETH can add SPCX price exposure without opening a separate brokerage account. Positions are settled in USDT, which keeps the SPCX trade in the same balance used for the rest of a crypto portfolio.

This matters most around event windows. A trader who expects volatility into Flight 15 can size a Spot position in advance, set limit orders around the levels discussed above and avoid leverage entirely, since Spot trades cannot be liquidated. It is also easier to compare SPCX against other tradable assets on the same platform, such as NVDA, TSLA or BTC, when deciding where to allocate.

SPCX-USDT on WEEX Spot gives price exposure to SPCX. It does not give ownership of SpaceX shares or shareholder rights such as voting or dividends. Traders should check current liquidity and spread on the order book before placing orders. WEEX also maintains a 1,000 BTC protection fund, details at weex.com/protectfund.

Conclusion

SPCX stock enters October 6 after a strong 7.6% jump, with Morgan Stanley's $300 target, a successful Flight 14 and a possible ship catch on Flight 15 supporting the bull case. Launch timing, compute pricing assumptions, competition and a crowded short-term rally support the bear case. The next few weeks will likely depend more on the Flight 15 date than on any single analyst note. Readers should treat targets as ranges, not predictions, and check the latest price before acting.

FAQ

1. Why did SPCX stock jump on October 5, 2026?
It rose about 7.6% after Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 target and called the shares unusually cheap ahead of Starship Flight 15.

2. What is Morgan Stanley's price target for SpaceX stock?
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has a $300 target. The average analyst target was about $235 as of October 2, 2026.

3. When is Starship Flight 15?
No official date has been confirmed. Morgan Stanley expects late October or early November, while some trackers list December.

4. What are the main risks for SPCX stock?
The main risks are launch delays, unproven AI compute pricing, competition from Amazon's network and a short-term rally that may already reflect good news.

5. Can SPCX be traded on WEEX Spot?
Yes, SPCX-USDT is available on WEEX Spot. It gives price exposure, not ownership of SpaceX shares.